Monday, December 18, 2017

Packers draft history 2005-2017 and my grades

The first draft was 2005 when Aaron Rodgers was selected with Ted's first pick.  Hard to beat that unless you're able to draft another HOF QB.  Nick Collins was a great pick and his career ending injury possibly precludes him from attaining HOF recognition.  Draft Grade A+ because of AR12 and because he's still playing at an MVP level.
The 2006 through 2009 drafts consisted of 40 players.  The best being CM3 who's still playing at a high level but needs to be moved around and used on stunts/schemed or allowed to free lance.  A.J. Hawks and B.J. Raji were top 10 draft picks.  I wanted them to draft Raji but wanted Vernon Davis over A.J. back then...  2006 was an ok draft draft grade of B; 2007 still has Mason Crosby but in all reality was a C- draft at best and only produced two short term starters (Jones & Bishop); Justin Harrell is considered a bust my many fans; 2008 produced Jordy who's arguably the 2nd best player drafted during this time period.  The 2008 draft grade is a A- because it produced three starters, two being Pro-Bowl awarded.  2009 was the best draft in this time period because of CM3 and Raji (Pro-Bowl), T.J. Lang (Pro-Bowl) and rates an A.
The 2010-2013 drafts included 36 players.  This period produced a mixed bag in general but does include the bookend OTs and that's a good thing.  Because LT is such an important position, I'd say David Bakhtari is worthy of being labeled the best player drafted.  I think he's a better OT than Chad Clifton was and was selected to the Pro-Bowl in 2016.  2010 draft grade is a solid B+ because it produced three starters, two still with the team.  2011 gets a C because only Randall Cobb has been a viable starter although House has been ok at times on his return to GB in 2017.  The 2012 draft had Perry, Hayward and Mike Daniels as good picks and arguably rates a B+ or B grade.  The 2013 draft had Bakhtiari and actually, four other players that were good picks and contributors during their rookie contracts.  Unfortunately, only Bakhtiari received a 2nd contract.  Letting Hyde leave in FA was a mistake (just like letting Hayward leave).  2013 with four solid picks / starters (but Datone Jones could be labeled a bust) receives a B- or B grade.
The 2014-2017 drafts include 34 players.  The 2014 draft is the key draft in this time frame because it's the group currently entering UFA in 2018 and affects the 2018 focus the most.  2014 draft grade is a solid B+ or A- because of three starters (one being Pro-Bowl awarded) and potentially five starters if you count Richard Rodgers and Jeff Janis.  2015 draft evaluation is at the 3-year point so I think it's fair to grade it and give it a C because Damarious Randall is the only current starter. However, only two of the eight picks were released so that's not too bad.  Ripkowski doesn't get enough PT but certainly could in the future as a lead blocker.  The 2016 draft is looking very promising after year two because of Kenny Clark's play.  Blake Martinez is the second good starter.  All seven picks have earned roster spots so I think it rates out to be a B draft with the potential for a higher grade.  The 2017 draft grade is TBD because it's only year one.
Total number of draft picks from 2005 through 2017 is 113 but the total number of picks that still remain is 37 with only 11 picks from 2013 or before.  The 16 not drafted or FA type includes two starters (I didn't include House because he was originally a drafted player), the punter, and LS.  I do not fault Ted for the Martellus Bennett episode but in hindsight it would be better to have Cook.

Of the 16 not drafted or FA type players currently on the How Built Roster, six will be replaced by the IR guys (five of which are draft picks).  Of the six IR guys, only Bulaga and King are starters and the rest are key contributors.  Brice was part of the nickel / dime alignment and it's possible Rollins can recapture a nickel / dime role too.  Former WR Montgomery is the best receiving RB.  The remaining 10 not drafted or FA type players will most likely be replaced by 2018 draft picks.

I've reviewed Matt Miller's initial ratings of 2018 draft eligible players and will defer to his rankings on 15 December.  Here's his top 32 + pre-bowl list of players in no particular order?:
  1. RB Saquon Barkley, Penn State
  2. QB Sam Darnold, USC
  3. FS Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama
  4. QB Josh Rosen, UCLA
  5. DE Bradley Chubb, North Carolina State
  6. OG Quenton Nelson, Notre Dame
  7. OT Connor Williams, Texas
  8. RB Derrius Guice, LSU
  9. LB Rashaan Evans, Alabama
  10. QB Josh Allen, Wyoming
  11. SS Derwin James, FSU
  12. DE Harold Landry, Boston College
  13. SS Ronnie Harrison, Alabama
  14. QB Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
  15. WR Calvin Ridley, Alabama
  16. LB Roquan Smith, Georgia
  17. DE Clelin Ferrell, Clemson
  18. DT Christian Wilkins, Clemson
  19. CB Josh Jackson, Iowa
  20. CB Denzel Ward, Ohio State
  21. CB Isaiah Oliver, Colorado
  22. OT Mike McGlinchey, Notre Dame
  23. RB Ronald Jones II, USC
  24. RB Damien Harris, Alabama
  25. RB Kerryon Johnson, Auburn
  26. DE Sam Hubbard, Ohio State
  27. DT Vita Vea, Washington
  28. WR Courtland Sutton, SMU
  29. LB Malik Jefferson, Texas
  30. DT Maurice Hurst, Michigan
  31. TE Dallas Goedert, South Dakota State
  32. DT Da'Ron Payne, Alabama
Here's my pre-draft thoughts...we'll probably be drafting around #20 if we finish 9-7 (which I think we will) so maybe we'll have a shot at the players highlighted in yellow.  Four of them are defensive players Edge type DE or LB with PR ability (e.g., Malik Jefferson) or CB (3)...both areas are needed.  I wouldn't take any of the offensive/defensive lineman and would prefer to trade down in that scenario.  Same can be said for the RB position but not necessarily about the WR or TE (Sutton, Ridley, or Goecert) position with speed being the most desired attribute.  There are eight players (RB/DT/OL) that enable the Packers to trade down from.  Pipe dream draft move is to trade-up to number four pick (Cleveland) to get Bradley Chubb.

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