Monday, December 11, 2017

12.11.17 (7-6 record)

  • 7-6 means there's still a chance at the playoffs if AR12 returns
  • I'm hopeful things will workout and we sneak into the playoffs
  • I'd draft defense heavy (again) specifically Pass Rusher (PR/Edge) and DB
  • CM3 looks pretty good moving around but mostly attacking the QB
  • Besides CM3, they need Nick Perry and find another edge rusher next draft / FA
  • Fackrell might be able to play ILB and as a spy / zone drop / delayed blitzer
  • Jury is pending regarding Vince Biegel but I'd still like to see him get more PT; Biegel appears to be a versatile LB that could play in space or rush the QB (hopefully)
  • Damarious Randall is playing good pass defense and is arguably their best at getting the interception; this defense lives and dies on the big play / turnover
  • Josh Jones finally had an interception…a huge turning point in the game
  • HHCD had a good game and nice interception…prevented a Browns scoring drive
  • Jermaine Whitehead is getting PT over Marwin Evans…Whitehead is playing slot as the 6th DB along-side Morgan Burnett as the other slot DB; Whitehead had six? interceptions as a senior for Auburn and has been with the Pack on PS for awhile
  • They have six players listed as CB & five as S & the dime contains a 4s/2cb configuration and the nickel contains a 3s/2cb
  • I hope Kevin King gets healthy and wish him well
  • Davon House was injured and it didn't look good at the time…not sure what his status is but wish him well; he's still a viable CB for next season but still need to invest a premium pick or two as well as Pass Rusher because PR is arguably their biggest need
  • Defense has allowed seven opening drive scores (TDs?) matching the Offense attaining seven opening drive scores; I would like to see a new defensive coordinator in 2018
  • What defensive players do I like and want to keep for 2018:
    • DB (11) - Hawkins, House, King, Randall, HHCD, Josh Jones, Kentrell Brice, Morgan Burnett, Marwin Evans/Jermaine Whitehead -- leaves ~2 open spots for draft picks or Quinton Rollins & a draft pick; Demetri Goodson is JAG at this point; I'm not convinced resigning Morgan Burnett is the best option but he certainly could be considered a high priority by Ted; I like the three safety alignment & think the trio of HHCD, Josh Jones, & Kentrell Brice is the future.  HHCD & Jones certainly are but think both players play better closer to the LOS vs being the deep centerfielder type at safety; without have a reliable centerfielder they need to play two-deep with HHCD being one of the guys…currently teamed with Josh Jones who has great potential as a do-it-all DB; you need athletes at DB and I think the Packers have some that qualify but could use another playmaker or two; Lenzy Pipkins and Donatello Brown don't appear to be anything more than JAGs and are replaceable; DB is the last line of defense so it's arguably the most important position… Randall & King are they top two key CB type (boundary) but Randall is also good in the slot…he's become a good CB and playmaker like he was as a rookie but only better/more experienced now; I agree with those out there that believe that letting Casey Hayward and Micah Hyde leave were mistakes; both have above average ball skills / playmaking skills but think King & Josh Jones offer upside; I think Hawkins has the chance to become a player because of his speed; I also wonder why some people have said he doesn't have slot capability?  Who should/will the 5th & 6th DBs be (Burnett?, House?, a Rookie?, Hawkins?, Whitehead? UFA?); Is PR a bigger need over coverage?  Will Ted shy away from the FA market and will there be any worthwhile CBs available?
    • ILB/OLB (9) - CM3, Perry, Martinez, Ryan, Biegel, Fackrell - ~3 open spots with biggest need being Pass Rusher/Edge LB/DE - need to spend multiple picks on PR; they have not replaced Julius Peppers' production and playmaking; I don't think FA will provide solid options at acquiring an Edge/PR but who knows at this point; Joe Thomas has disappeared and so has Chris Odom; Ahmad Brooks is a pending FA  and might not be worth bringing back/is replaceable with a draft pick?  I'm intrigued by Vince but also by Fackrell especially if he can play as a stack LB
    • DL (5) - The pair of Kenny Clark and Mike Daniels is pretty good inside; I especially like Clark because he might have more upside than Mike Daniels; Dean Lowry is a nice rotation player and third DL when they play three DL (better when he's 3rd); Haven't really noticed much from Montravius Adams; Quinton Dial is worth resigning / extending -- I'm not inclined to spend draft capital on DL unless a potential Calais Campbell was there…or another Kenny Clark;
    • Which defensive alignment do they play the most?...appears to be the nickel approximate (WAG) 70% -- 80-85% if dime; 3dl is < 20% -- best defensive player is arguably Kenny Clark, who can handle double-teams better than Mike Daniels IMO; CM3 might be the most important in the front five/six; if he's allowed to be the 3rd dynamic PR from his rover position he's actually quite dangerous -- good in coverage too running with TEs; Having Nick Perry available at the right Edge position is real important too; need that 3rd PR guy but maybe Vince will pan out as a situational PR guy…or Fackrell or a 2018 draft pick (more likely?)
      • Clark, Daniels, CM3, Perry, Martinez, and if needing a 6th then go with Lowry, Biegel, Fackrell, Ryan (they played Martinez & Ryan a fair amount together these last couple of games) or a rookie draft pick (preferably a premium pick); Fackrell might still surprise in 2018 (potential late bloomer)…he's a good ST player and probably is more than a JAG because he's been at the right spot at the right time a few times in 2017 so why not give him another shot (besides he's still on his rookie deal)
      • HHCD, Josh Jones, Randall, King, & ?? (Brice/Burnett/rookie?/3rd CB) are the nickel and maybe somebody steps into the dime role as a playmaker; Will they bring Morgan Burnett back for a 2nd big contract (3rd total contract)?  I'm also intrigued by Josh Hawkins because of his speed
      • I would draft two Edge/PR guys & two DB playmakers (perfect scenario)
  • What offensive players do I like and want to keep for 2018:
    • QB1 is obviously AR12 and will remain that way until he decides to retire; Brett Hundley is a viable back-up for 2018 unless some team gets froggy with a 3rd or higher draft pick (I might even consider a 4th); maybe spend a day three pick for a number three if an intriguing prospect is available
    • RB/FB (5) - Ty Montgomery, Jamaal Williams, Aaron Jones, Devante Mays, Aaron Ripkowski - Mays is #5 and potentially replaceable/currently in dog-house; Joe Kerridge is currently on the roster as the #2 FB / ST player
    • WR/TE (9) - Davante Adams (must resign), Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Geronimo Allison, Jeff Janis (#1 ST), Trevor Davis (return guy), Michael Clark (6'6); Lance Kendricks & Richard Rodgers -- it's probably a good idea to invest in a TE unless Michael Clark becomes a factor there…6'6 is very intriguing target size; going more four WR + 1rb could be the main alignment but McCarthy has options; they will need to address the cap space allocation at WR for 2018; having three guys accounting for double-digit million cap space might not be doable…but maybe it is; they obviously must resign Davante, no question!...I'd also consider trying to extend both Jordy and Cobb for two/three years each which would make it much more doable to keep these three WRs together.  Cobb is a good #3 option; they have speed at WR with Davis & Janis plus both play ST gunner
    • OL (9) - Corey Linsley, Bak, Lane Taylor, Jahri Evans, Bulaga, Spriggs, Kyle Murphy, Adam Pankey, Justin McCray -- maybe replace Pankey but maybe not; OL is not a priority need IMO unless they lose both Evans & Bulaga; I'm not convinced they can afford to let Corey Linsley leave either but maybe McCray can handle the role
    • Which offensive alignment will they play the most?...NFI because I expect a change or two at WR/TE…but who knows; they have an interesting crew that lacks speed from the top four spots (Davante, Jordy, Cobb, & G-Mo); I would definitely use 1rb a majority of the snaps because they've got some intriguing options between Williams, Jones, and Montgomery; Ripkowski is an effective lead blocker and load to bring down when he has the ball; the Packers currently have 25 offensive players and 25 defensive players + LS/P/K -- Michael Clark intrigues me because he's 6'6 and athletic (basketball player); Davante has become the #1 option for Hundley but will he remain the #1 option for AR12?...maybe he will…and could become that triple-digit pass catcher/workhorse receiver; could/would McCarthy ever use Ty with either Williams or Jones on-field?
  • My preference for 2018 adjustments to the Packers roster and football management structure (coaching / GM) is for McCarthy to remain as HC, Ted decide to cede roster management/Director of Football Operations to one of the following:

  • Replacing Dom Capers as DC is pretty much a must do for McCarthy but maybe Capers will gracefully retire during the off-season; replacing other defensive staff is an option too;  Maybe one or both of the DB coaches need to be replaced along with Capers?  Same for the LB coaches…
  • Of the 25 defensive players on the roster as of 12.11.17 at least three DBs will be replaced because of returning IR players (Brice, King, and Rollins) which means D. Brown, Pipkins, Goodwin, Whitehead/Marwin Evans could be replaced plus Burnett is a possibility for leaving in FA; It's my opinion that D. Brown, Pipkins, & Goodwin are replaceable and will be replaced by King & Rollins, Brice can replace either Goodwin or Whitehead/Marwin Evans; Burnett's status is the key factor at DB…I would prefer to replace him with another variation of Josh Jones (i.e., size & speed); I also like Brice as #3 starting safety type that can play the two-deep safety role; the speed combination of Josh Jones & Brice is intriguing, plus when combined with HHCD they have three guys that can play the two-deep safety role and they can also play in the box; three safeties playing with one of them technically playing a LB role is in-vogue and the Packers have the players to do it!  The 3rd cover CB is the question mark?...but my money is on Hawkins or a 2018 draft pick; zero DL will be replaced, but a 6th DL could be added if he has PR ability; Edge/OLB/PR is arguably the biggest need; some fans are currently grumbling that the Packers should've drafted TJ Watt and I certainly think it's a valid gripe…I know I wanted the Packers to draft Watt but also didn't question moving down and taking Kevin King because he has special size/speed for a boundary CB…the only issue with him is the shoulder (labrum) which is a valid concern…
  • Of the 25 offensive players, Bulaga, Murphy, and Montgomery will be returning from IR; Monty should replace FB Joe Kerridge or RB Mays because they don't need four RB types because Ripkowski can fill a RB role if absolutely necessary plus he provides good pass protection…he's a four-down player as McCarthy likes to say; I really like McCray as a back-up OL because he's versatile and can play every position on the OL; Spriggs is getting valuable time at RT but prefer Bulaga manning the position; key FA decisions loom regarding Corey Linsley (must?) and Evans but McCray or Murphy could be viable RG unless Spriggs is worth starting at RT and then move Bulaga to RG?  TBD, keep James Campen as  OL coach; offensive coaching staff can stay status quo

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