01.25.17 - Future at RB in 2017 -- other FA thoughts from an offensive perspective

Snippet from Rob Demovsky:

http://www.espn.com/blog/green-bay-packers/post/_/id/37177/eddie-lacys-future-will-impact-what-packers-do-at-running-back

Eddie Lacy says he wants to come back, but at what price?

Ty Montgomery looks like a full-time running back, but can he handle more than a dozen carries per game -- something he did only once this past season after he converted from receiver

And who knows what’s in the future for James Starks, who hasn’t played since he suffered a concussion in a Dec. 12 car crash, or in-season pickup Christine Michael.

It’s why Lacy, whose rookie contract is set to expire, will be one of the Packers’ most important decisions in free agency.

==[end snippet]==

I think the above statements (by Demovsky) are reasonable at this time.  One thing I believe is we'll have three RBs (not including Ripkowski, who I like very much as a FB & occasionally with the ball).  Ty Montgomery is a given and definitely part of the equation at RB (wish he could keep his #88 as a RB).

I would cut James Starks.  I would consider resigning Christine Michael for veteran's minimum as the 3rd RB.  If not, then they'll either have to draft somebody (not a bad option) or bring in a FA, UDFA, one of their practice squad guys, or maybe even bring John Crockett back (2016 IR).

====[snippet]=====

When last seen around the facility, he looked at least as big as he was at this time last year, when coach Mike McCarthy called him out publicly for being overweight. Perhaps the Packers and Lacy would agree on a short-term deal similar to the two-year, $6 million contract Starks signed last offseason. 2016 pay: $867,602 base salary, no bonuses

==[end snippet]==

I'd love to see Eddie Lacy resigned for the 2nd part of the equation at RB.  I suppose the key to resigning him the the financial aspect...what amount will Eddie resign for is the question.  I think he's worth considerably more than what they offered Starks...maybe in the ~$9-10m range but that's just a WAG at this point.  I think anything less than that is good for the Packers.

Demovsky also discusses other offensive players that are pending 2017 FAs (TJ Lang, Jared Cook, JC Tretter, and Don Barclay).  It's highly unlikely the Packers can/will resign all four of these guys. Barclay is JAG but might be worth while to resign as a bench player for minimum salary.  Jarred Cook is pretty much a must sign but the $$ needs to be reasonable for cap purposes.  I'd definitely resign TJ Lang who IMO is the #1 guy that needs to be resigned from an offensive perspective.

Bottom Line: resign TJ Lang, Jared Cook, and Eddie Lacy.

Defense is next to look at...at another time.

1.24.17 - Things I think about the Packers after being blown-out

So much for posting more frequently...LOL.

OK, so it's now Tuesday, 1.24.17 which is a good ~40+ hours after the Packers were massacred in Atlanta.  I haven't posted anything in the CHTV blog responses regarding the loss.  No doubt the loss was hard for Packers' fans to deal with and witness.  Lots of scathing comments...  On the media end, Bob McGinn posted his usual ratings piece...and he was definitely scathing with his comments!

For example: STARS OF THE GAME: 1. T.J. Lang; 2. Jordy Nelson; 3. Don Barclay

OK, so he rates Don Barclay as the 3rd star...wow, that says alot.  Granted Barclay played much better than I expected and had to play quite a few snaps but it speaks volumes that nobody else was worthy of McGinn's star label.  His bottom line (last) sentence about Aaron Rodgers was: "Super Bowl berths are hard to achieve with a franchise quarterback playing well below par."

Yeah, not Aaron's best game during the 'run the table' stretch but he didn't have a ton of help from the skill position players either (sans Jordy early on, and Cook).  Cobb made a few plays but was mostly quiet during the game.  Devonte Adams couldn't do much with his bum ankle.  Monty only played 23 snaps due to injury.  Ripkowski's lost fumble was a killer...but I still love the kid!

The Falcons obviously killed the Packers with an air assault that was lightning quick (typically 1.5 - 2.0 seconds before pass release by Matt Ryan) and lethal -- especially on 3rd down.  Julio Jones was unstoppable...and I was expecting that from him because his talent level as a WR is #1 at this time IMO...the combination of his size, speed, strength, and hands is too much for top tier CBs to handle much less Ladarious Gunter or Damarious Randall.

Speaking of Damarious Randall, to say he had a rough and very inconsistent season would be an understatement.  However, he did flash a few times during the year, especially vs the Seahawks.  The deep ball interception show-cased his centerfield ability...but he was drafted to play CB and he really regressed in 2016 compared to his 2015 rookie campaign.  He consistently provided 5-10 yards of cushion which typically resulted in easy completions against him.  He also got caught peaking into the backfield by looking to see where the QB was going with the ball which also resulted in easy completions against him...several big gainers and/or TDs.

I don't think there's any question that the Packers' biggest need going into the 2017 season will be getting more talent at CB for 2017.  Sam Shields says he still wants to play...  I think even if Shields wants to play they'll need to add more talent to the CB position.  Here's the final listing for CBs on the roster for the Falcons game:

36	Gunter, LaDarius	CB	6-2	201	24	2	Miami
28	Hawkins, Josh	CB	5-10	189	24	R	East Carolina
23	Randall, Damarious	CB	5-11	196	24	2	Arizona State
24	Rollins, Quinten	CB	5-11	195	24	2	Miami (Ohio)
26	Waters, Herb	CB	6-0	188	24	R	Miami
33	Hyde, Micah	DB	6-0	197	26	4	Iowa

Wow...that looks brutal from an experience perspective...talent level needs improvement too!  Only reason both Hawkins and Waters were on the 53 man was due to injuries.  Available roster spots: 2

Injured reserve and practice squad:

37

Shields, Sam

CB

5-11

184

29

7

Miami

20	Dorleant, Makinton	CB	5-11	182	24	R	Northern Iowa
39	Goodson, Demetri	CB	5-11	197	27	3	Baylor

31

Benwikere, Bené

CB

5-11

196

25

3

San Jose State

I hope the Packers let Shields come back if he wants to.  I'd still try to renegotiate his contract if he comes back and would prefer not to cut him if he wants to play.  If Shields comes back they still should draft a CB as early as possible...maybe even double-down at the position.  I also think they should continue to carry six CBs (including Micah Hyde or some other veteran FA).

Hyde is a pending 2017 FA.  I would consider paying him low-end starter's money because of his role in nickel/dime packages.  They shouldn't resign Goodson (pending FA).  Didn't see enough of Makinton Dorleant to determine his worth.

Quick look at the safety listing:

29	Brice, Kentrell	S	5-11	200	22	R	Louisiana Tech
42	Burnett, Morgan	S	6-1	209	28	7	Georgia Tech
21	Clinton-Dix, Ha Ha	S	6-1	208	24	3	Alabama
25	Evans, Marwin	S	5-11	211	23	R	Utah State

I actually like the safety group quite a bit.  Granted, the Packers need Cliton-Dix to step-up even more than he did (I think he deserved his pro-bowl spot) but overall, I was very happy with him and Morgan Burnett because they're turning into quite a good safety tandem.  Like many fans, I also like Brice and think he's got a bright future.  Marwin Evans dropped a gift wrapped interception from Matt Ryan that could've kept 7 points off the board.

The Packers obviously have needs at other positions.  Number two on my positions of needs list is at LB, where there are three pending 2017 FAs with Julius Peppers, Nick Perry, and Datone Jones.

95

Jones, Datone

DE/LB

6-4

285

26

4

UCLA

91	Elliott, Jayrone	LB	6-3	255	25	3	Toledo
51	Fackrell, Kyler	LB	6-5	245	25	R	Utah State
50	Martinez, Blake	LB	6-2	237	23	R	Stanford
52	Matthews, Clay	LB	6-3	255	30	8	Southern California
56	Peppers, Julius	LB	6-7	287	37	15	North Carolina
53	Perry, Nick	LB	6-3	265	26	5	Southern California
47	Ryan, Jake	LB	6-2	240	24	2	Michigan
48	Thomas, Joe	LB	6-1	227	25	2	South Carolina State
58	Tripp, Jordan	LB	6-3	234	25	3	Montana

Jayrone Elliott will also be a FA in 2017 but he's of the RFA variety.  He's a very good ST player so I'd probably make him an offer (lowest tender).  Perry will cost (and be worth) the most money.  I'd offer Datone a prove-it deal and bring back Peppers (at a reduced rate) if he still wants to play.  

Jordan Tripp is certainly replaceable (and should be) and probably Joe Thomas too.   Available roster spots: 2 

I'd draft another edge rusher and I'd use CM3 strictly in the rover role (his best role).  I didn't see enough from Kyler Fackrell to determine his worth or potential...but I'm hopeful.  If Fackrell can become a starter it'll be huge, especially if he can be moved around like CM3 can.

Offensive skill positions:

32 Michael, Christine RB 5-10 220 26 4 Texas A&M 88 Montgomery, Ty RB 6-0 216 24 2 Stanford 44 Starks, James RB 6-2 218 30 7 Buffalo 89 Cook, Jared TE 6-5 254 29 8 South Carolina 82 Rodgers, Richard TE 6-4 257 25 3 California 17 Adams, Davante WR 6-1 215 24 3 Fresno State 81 Allison, Geronimo WR 6-3 202 23 R Illinois 18 Cobb, Randall WR 5-10 192 26 6 Kentucky 11 Davis, Trevor WR 6-1 188 23 R California 83 Janis, Jeff WR 6-3 219 25 3 Saginaw Valley State 13 McCaffrey, Max WR 6-2 200 22 R Duke 87 Nelson, Jordy WR 6-3 217 31 9 Kansas State 40 Kerridge, Joe FB 6-0 245 24 R Michigan 22 Ripkowski, Aaron FB 6-1 246 24 2 Oklahoma Injured reserve: 27Lacy, Eddie         RB5-11234264Alabama 14 offensive skill position players is a doable number. RB - Both Starks and Christine Michael should be replaced and I'd bring back Eddie Lacy on a prove-it deal. Max McCaffrey will almost certainly be replaced...but not sure they'll keep 7 WRs again. TE/FB are treated similarly by McCarthy.  Jared Cook is a priority 2017 FA. Ted Thompson's mantra is draft & the coaches develop.  Has signed two future HOF players via FA (Charles Woodson and Julius Peppers), other notable signing was Ryan Pickett.  No busts in FA based-on an expenditure perspective. The Packers lost Casey Hayward via FA and should get a compensatory pick for him (5th?). I'm not sure if the Packers will receive a draft pick from the Bills for the OLB we traded to them.  If so, that'll be an additional 7th round pick.  That would make nine total picks for Ted. Speaking of Ted, I've been reading/hearing internet reporting/opines from the media and definitely blogs/tweets regarding Ted Thompson's future.  Expectations, wants, and WAGs abounded with the desired outcome of Ted stepping into a senior scouting role and somebody like Elliot Wolf assuming the GM role.  Other options could be John Dorsey (a long time favorite of mine for GM), possibly raiding Seattle, or maybe even Brian Gutekunst, Director of Player Personnel.  I'd be good with Elliot, John, or Brian taking over...or John Schneider.