11.21.17 - Packers are 5-5

• Packers are 5-5 after being shutout by the Ravens
• Neither the Bears or Ravens games were televised locally & I didn't go to the bar to watch the games
• I've seen high/low lights from each game.  Although the Packers' defense looked OK in both games, neither opposing offense was very good. 
• Packers' offense is QB driven and it's been rough with Hundley at the helm while he's still learning how to steer the ship.  He pretty much lost the Ravens game with his four turnovers (3 int 1 fum).  I didn't know what to expect from Hundley but I also remember Aaron Rodgers' 1st season as a starter the Packers had a losing season…Hundley led Packers are 1-4 and I doubt they win more than two game the rest of the season.
• Based on recent observations of bloggers at cheeseheadtv and various writers (blog & media sites), fans are not optimistic about the remaining portion of 2017.  I'm certainly not optimistic…and figured we were done when AR12 was hurt.  
• I hope they can resign Davante Adams but he's not worth top 10 money.  Adams has been the Packers' leading receiver for much of 2017.  
• Six more games for other players to step-up or down as the case may be.
• Chtv fans have also clamored for Capers to be fired; as well as Ted Thompson and Mike McCarthy.  I'd definitely welcome a change at DC.  While Mike McCarthy is extremely loyal to his coaches…he's fired coaches before!
• Might have to wait out Thompson's contract but who knows, maybe they'll negotiate something with him to step aside.  My replacement choice is Elliot Wolf or John Dorsey.  I would like to see McCarthy stay.
• Defensive Player wise…still have work to do at pass rush and CB.  I like what they have at safety even though they don't have a true centerfielder type.
• Offensive Player wise…everything revolves around AR12; don't really have a back-up plan at QB unless Hundley improves drastically. 
• This was/is supposed to be Hundley's audition time for a starting role with some other team in 2018.  It's not going so well.  He's caused a lot of sacks and has way too many turnovers.  At this point the Pack will be lucky to recoup a 5th for Hundley in a trade or compensatory pick.
• The OL went through some early season injury struggles at OT and when things finally look to heal then Bulaga goes down with an ACL.  Justin McCray has been a significant find for the OL because he looks serviceable at all five OL positions.  Apparently, Jason Spriggs looked bad at RT.  I'm sure he'll get another shot to look bad vs the Steelers.
• Right now it's starting to look like the Packers will be drafting in the top 15 and I'm hoping they'll have a good shot at drafting an EDGE player…maybe Arden Key, Harold Landry, one of the Clemson guys (Clelin Ferrell or Austin Bryant), or maybe Sam Hubbard of Ohio St.  I'd be OK with a top rated CB too. 
• The Packers should draft at least two EDGE players and one of them has to be within our top two picks (if not both).  I wouldn't draft a safety unless he was a true centerfielder type with very good speed.
• Offensive draft pick should be a skill player with breakaway speed…likely a WR.  The GM has a significant cap allocation decision to make at WR.  Davante Adams will require a cap number approaching what Nelson & Cobb are getting in 2018.  The Packers can't keep all three at those cap numbers.

10.30.17

• Basically have had two games with Hundley at QB and things haven't looked so good…Brett has accuracy problems but hopefully he can correct them.  He's a good athlete and has a strong enough arm.
• Hopefully Morgan Burnett will be healthy enough to play Monday night vs the Lions (on 11.6.17).  I agree with those that believe HHCD is very dependent on Burnett…but I also think HHCD is a better box player vs deep safety or single-high deep safety (i.e., centerfielder).
• Josh Jones…why haven't they used him to blitz off the edge much since his 2-sack game?  I'm not saying all the time but I don't recall seeing it much recently…he has explosive speed…as does Kentrell Brice.
• 2nd half defense vs the Saints was brutal…but then again, they were facing Drew Brees and the Saints have a pretty good RB duo.
• I recently read a quote of some NFL personnel guy saying that Ty Montgomery is a fraud as a RB.  I disagree with the assessment but I'm also a fan…I think Ty can play but I'm thinking he's best suited as a pass receiving RB and think he could be used with Aaron Jones (who looks really good after having two 100+ yard rushing games).
• Blake Martinez!...he's becoming a good ILB/MLB…and looks like he's able to play all 4 downs.  He still scares me a little in pass defense but he's usually around the ball and has good awareness…excellent tackler.
• If the defense fails the rest of the season, will McCarthy fire Capers?  That seems to be the #1 question / comment of fans out there…  I think they can use more defensive talent but also think there's a serious communication / understanding of scheme (defensive play calls) issue(s).
• Basically two games behind the Vikings in the standings ATT…with one game remaining with them at Lambeau…which will be hard to overcome.
• I'm not optimistic AR12 will play again in the 2017 season.
•  Probably means >.500 record
• Top 15 draft pick in 2018?
• They need at least one more pass rusher…but the more the merrier.
• When will they play Montravious Adams to see if he can offer some inside pass rush?

As of 10.30.17 the Packers have 12 pending UFA + 9 R/ERFA:

• Of the 12 UFA, only Morgan Burnett, Davante Adams, Corey Linsley, and Davon House are starters.
• Linsley will cost considerably more than his rookie contract but arguably the number 1 priority resign.  IMO, the positional importance on the OL goes LT is #1, then C is #2.  but the other three cannot be slugs.  Jahri Evans was a good FA acquisition and wouldn't be a bad option to resign in 2018. 
• The amount of injury the Packers incurred at OT in 2017 was unprecedented for the Packers (at least that I can remember).   Fortunately, Bak and Bulaga appear to be regaining their health for the 2nd half of 2017.
• Justin McCray appears to be a solid back-up OL that has starting potential which IMO is why Barclay was released from IR.
• How much $$$ will Davante Adams cost?  Is he worth paying $10m/yr ave?
• Can/will they restructure/extend CM3, Jordy, and Cobb?  If not, will they release any of them?  IMO, 2017 is the last season we see Jordy, Cobb, and Adams together.
• Can Geronimo Allison become the 3rd WR to replace Cobb or Adams?  I don't know…and I'm more intrigued by Michael Clark because he's 6'6/217 compared to G-Mo's 6'3/202
• The Packers have approximately $12.2m available cap space as of 10.30.17 that they'll carry-over into 2018.

• 13 drafts by Ted Thompson with his best being his first because of AR12.  Nick Collins is arguably his 2nd best pick (or CM3).
• My biased draft grades:
• 2005 - A+
• 2006 - C
• 2007 - C-
• 2008 - B+
• 2009 - A-
• 2010 - B
• 2011 - C-
• 2012 - B-
• 2013 - B-
• 2014 - B
• 2015 - C
• 2016 - C
• 2017 - ?

10.16.17 - My impressions after 6 games…

• Things were going pretty good until the broken collarbone bone.
• The OL has been decimated by injury!  Hundley could get pounded because of it.
• Guess we'll see how good Hundley really is…see if he's starting quality.  I think it's going to be a rough go because of the OL.
• The OL cannot perform well enough with 3 key starters out.
• Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins are still so damn inconsistent it's maddening.  Lenzy Pipkins is intriguing and plays hard.  Josh Hawkins might be their 3rd best CB; he's certainly one of their fastest, which is important…
• Kenny Clark and Mike Daniels appear to becoming a dynamic duo at DT/DL.  Daniels is obviously the key player up-front but Clark, IMO, is becoming a really good DL, and similar in style to MD.
• Playing 3-DL more frequently isn't such a bad idea either…especially when it's Dean Lowry, Clark, and MD.
• I'm not optimistic and think the Packers are a sub-500/.500 team without AR12…but maybe they will get a better read on some of their players and whether they're worth keeping.
• …maybe they don't win again either…guess that's why they'll have to play the games!
• Blake Martinez is becoming a good/very good ILB/MLB.  He doesn't miss many tackles; blitzes pretty good; has pretty good mobility and diagnosis ability.
• Josh Jones is better suited to the in-box S/LB role than traditional deep safety ATT.  I'm not sure I'd call Josh Jones a safety per se or whether it really matters WRT a positional classification.  I do believe he's a player that needs to be on the field though and I also like seeing Brice on-field at the same time.
• When Morgan Burnett gets healthy, the "Four Safety" line-up could become a common look.  I'm convinced #21, 27, 29, & 42 are four of the Packers better defensive players regardless of position.  Having them on-field together would be a good thing.
• CM3, Perry, Daniels, Clark, Lowry, Martinez, HHCD, Burnett, Josh Jones, Kevin King, Davon House; or replace Lowry with Brice and play both Josh Jones and Burnett in the box.
• Just got a Bleacher Report that Q. Rollins is on IR due to Achilles injury sustained vs Vikes.  Wonder if they'll use his roster spot for Vince Biegel?...does it matter?...

10.11.17 - Four & one

• I'll start out bullet style...easiest way to portray random thoughts about the game and season
• Watched the Dal-GB game a second time just for the pure enjoyment...what a shootout!
• Enough cannot be said about AR12; still hard to believe the Packers' have had such greatness at QB since Favre...Only the 49ers can say they've had back-to-back HOFers at QB
• In shootout type games, if the defense can come-up with one or two big plays it can be the difference.  Say what you want about #23 Damarious Randell but that INT return was such a game changer...  I still don't know what to expect from Randell though.  He's very talented (physically) and has good ball skills.  Obviously he's immature...
• I like the Packers' style of offense and how they're playing.  Obviously, AR12 is the key.  
• Lane Taylor...he's becoming my favorite OL but I'd still rather see him at LG than LT
• Aaron Jones...wow!  Now the Packers will have a real nice combo at RB 
• I don't think the lack of game breaking speed at WR will hurt that much; besides, Jordy can still sneak deep on occasion as well as other players (Kendricks, GMo); the consistency of the passing attack has been apparent and will get a little better with time.  
• Maintaining control of the ball is always a good thing; scoring is even better.
• AR12 has a lot of toys at his disposal.  AR12 having 3 TEs to use is very interesting and they've got three that can catch the ball!
• Yeah, Davante Adams is a stud...will Ted pay him Dez money?  Fortunately, the cap goes up next season, Ted will have roll-over $$ to spend on Davante, but will likely have to make decisions regarding Jordy & Cobb's 2018 cap numbers.  It's going to be hard from a cap perspective to pay huge contracts to three WRs...but they might be able to get away with it for one season.  Jordy's probably good for one more short term (e.g., 3 years) contract.  
• Cobb hasn't been worth his contract payout the last couple of seasons but is is definitely valuable when healthy.  Extending Cobb a few seasons for cap relief is an option.
• Whoever said that Mike McCarthy is a stale play caller / Offense Coordinator is clueless.
• There's people out there who think Dom needs to go (i.e., be fired or needs to retire) I'm not one of them.  I'm not saying he's the best DC there is but I'm certain there are worse.  The grass isn't always greener on the other side.  I also prefer to stay with the "3-4" concept.
• There's no doubt coaching plays a very important role in wins & losses but ultimately it's up to the players to make plays vs designed schemes that matters the most.
• The defense needs Kevin King
• I like Josh Hawkins but he's still very, very raw
• I'm still amazed by the finish in Dallas...brilliant throw and catch for the win!

10.4.17 - the defense's DBs & the front five

• Here's an article from CheeseHeadTV that talks about Josh Hawkins' current opportunity for significant PT at the expense of D. Randall.  I've seen lots of opinions regarding what to do with Randall.  We'll see how things transpire... 
• I've been intrigued with Josh Hawkins pretty much from the start.  I've read (don't have the link) where he patterns his game after Sam Shields.  Hawkins has good speed but he's not as fast as Sam was plus I think Sam's ball awareness was very good (CW's the best ever).

1. CM3  
2. Mike Daniels 
3. Kenny Clark 
4. Nick Perry
5. Blake Martinez
6. Josh Jones
7. Morgan Burnett
8. HHCD
9. Kentrell Brice
10. Kevin King
11. Josh Hawkins / Davon House

It appears that using four safeties is becoming Capers' MO with this defense; I think it's a smart move & there's no doubt in my mind safety is the strength of the defense.  Josh Jones and Morgan Burnett are playing great in the box and Capers is scheme diverse for those guys.  It's also important that the defense can start out with two deep with HHCD & Brice and can also move these two around too.

I don't know if this four safety (4S) alignment is unique to the Packers or not but I don't remember the Packers ever using four at the same time.  I love it!  I think all four can/will be play-makers.

Because the Packers have four safeties good enough to start, they only need two CBs that can play the boundary.  Kevin King is obviously the RCB but IMO also the #1 CB.  The #2 is House when he's healthy and until then, it appears Josh Hawkins will get those fill-in snaps.

The front-five need to attack the ball/penetrate the LOS to cause as much disruption as quickly as possible.  The front-five includes an ILB/MLB type plus the front four.  The Packers consistently deploy a front four of 2 OLB and 2 DL or 1 DL plus 3 LB/EDGE guys.  

Can Blake Martinez be replaced with another LB (CM3?), Marwin Evans, or a 3rd CB?

Can Capers deploy CM3 as rover, Nick Perry at ROLB/edge, and three DL to encompass the front-five "heavy" -- the light version is 2 DL & 3 LB.  Here's my ranking of DL/LB

1. CM3  
2. Mike Daniels 
3. Kenny Clark 
4. Nick Perry
5. Blake Martinez
6. Ahmad Brooks
7. #94 Dean Lowry
8. #51 Kyler Fackrell
9. Quinton Dial
10. Montravious
11. Ricky Jean
12. Jake Ryan
13. Joe Thomas
14. Chris Odom
15. Vince Biegel?...will he be off the PUP soon enough or will his rookie season be a wash-out?  Which player will Vince replace in the 14 above?  My guess is Ricky Jean unless the 3 DL is a standard or frequent deployment.  

10.3.17 - @ the 1/4 mark

• A 3-1 record at this point is a good thing all things considered... It appears to me that ARod's patience has improved regarding accepting that using his quick-release is a good thing; that sustaining drives on a consistent basis is something he can do if he's focused on it.  It reinforces that he really can control games and help his defense out.
• Playing four safeties -- HHCD, Burnett, Brice, and JJones -- is playing to a defensive strength and I love it!...plus they have depth with Marwin Evans
• Starting four guards and a center...WOW...it worked!  TT's gut feeling on Lane Taylor is noteworthy because he's really playing good...and please no more OL injuries...
• The offense is diverse and risk adverse because of ARod.  It'll be Jordy as his #1 & maybe it'll be Cobb @ #2...he's looking good ATT anyway.  Marty Bennett has had too many drops but I still think he's going to be a huge contributor the rest-of-the-way.  2-TE set will be a huge
• Again, a  3-1 record at this point is a good thing all things considered... 

Coming up are two tough road games (Dallas & Minnesota)...very tough teams and very different.  Vikes defense is top 5 IMO & Dallas is all about their OL and Zeke running the rock.  Dallas will be a major challenge for the Packers defense to slow down, much less stop on a consistent basis.  The dynamic in Minnesota changes because of the injury to D. Cook...very unfortunate injury & significantly impacts their offense...he looked to be a very explosive runner.

The Pack will be extremely hard to beat if the defense limits its scoring allowed to the 17 pts range,

• I think the 17 ppg/allowed is realistic IF the offense can control things and consistently score.
• I think the offense is capable of scoring (at minimum) 26 ppg maybe 30.

If Cobb stays healthy...watch out, this offense will be exciting because of how he can be deployed...but he's already missed 1 game...and now Davante is in concussion protocol.  Jordy looks great...I like the 2-TE offense or even 3-TE.  Ty Montgomery has broke ribs?...not sure of his status for the Cowboys; Aaron Jones will likely be the #2 RB behind Monty.  Mays will be #3 

2.13.17 - Our pending FA & RFA plus dreaming outside FA?

There's an article @ Bleacher Report written on 2.13.17 by Gary Davenport that ranks the 2017 Free-Agent class by position.   It's an interesting read and covers the full-Monty.  The author states "it's a good year to be in the market for one of those pass-rushers."

Pass rusher will quickly become a huge need if the Packers lose two or more of their following u/rfa players: Nick Perry, Julius Peppers, Datone Jones, or Jayrone Elliott.

Pending 2017 FA (UFA/RFA) by position:

1. Nick Perry - edge
2. TJ Lang - G
3. Jared Cook - TE
4. Datone Jones - edge
5. Jayrone Elliott - edge
6. Julius Peppers - edge
7. Micah Hyde - DB
8. Eddie Lacy
9. Demetri Goodson - CB
10. Don Barclay - G/T
11. JC Tretter - C/OL
12. Christine Michael
13. Jordan Tripp - LB/ST 

As I previously stated, maintaining a pass rusher presence is paramount; Micah Hyde should also be considered as a priority resign because of the amount of time he played in 2016 due to his veteran leadership and versatility. The only other pending defensive FA is Goodson and he might not be ready for 2017 camp because of the knee injury.

The above listing is my prioritization.  I'm indifferent WRT Christine Michael; would rather see Lacy back and also see if John Crockett can make a jump/return (I liked his spunk).  Doesn't matter to me whether they sign TJ or Nick first or second as long as they sign them both.  Barclay is strictly a back-up but maybe a decent veteran minimum back-up because he can play all the spots (like Tretter).  Only need to resign Tretter if TJ goes elsewhere.

Not being able to resign Nick Perry would be a bad thing; not sure what his open market value will be but acknowledge he'll be costly to retain.  Datone hopefully can be retained via a 1-year prove-it contract like Perry was for 2016.  I'd also love to have Peppers back and would take him over Datone.

Here's an "Ask Vic" question on 2.13.17:
Which free agent in the NFL should the Packers be aggressive to try to pick up in free agency?

I won’t brush off these types of questions this year. I acknowledge Aaron Rodgers’ career has reached the point that a premium needs to be put on the present, so if the Packers can find a difference-maker in free agency, I’ll sign off on taking a swing for the fence. Who is that player? We won’t know until the tags go out and potential free agents have re-signed with their current teams.

Read more: http://www.packers.com/news-and-events/article-insider-inbox/article-1/I-wont-brush-off-free-agent-questions/2ac1b956-f99e-4321-a938-26c47f89a266#ixzz4YbjyFYcn

Vic is right that before we can really speculate on "purchasing" outside FAs we need to know who they'll be and we're still a ways off on that.  I still think it's more important, especially going into 2017, to resign our own guys before thinking about outside guys...but they have recouped Sam Shields' $9m cap number and can/should use that for a veteran CB is one becomes available in FA.

That brings me back/full-circle to the Bleacher Report article.  In the article, Gary Davenport lists the following "top players available" at CB as: AJ Bouye (Texans), Trumaine Johnson (Rams), Stephon Gilmore (Bills), Morris Claiborne (Cowboys), and Captain Munnerlyn (Vikings).  Per Spotrac, there are currently nine CBs making $10m or more per season.  Bouye, Trumaine Johnson, Gilmore, and probably Claiborne will command that amount for 2017.

• Trumaine Johnson was franchised in 2016 and would cost the Rams 120% of his 2016 contract to retain.  He's a big CB @ ~6'1"
• Stephon Gilmore and Morris Claiborne are also intriguing
• It's unlikely that all three hit the market
• Bouye is the wild-card because he would be yet another high $$ investment for the Texans defense...but probably their top off-season priority too.  Bouye is 25.
• I would resign Micah Hyde before Captain Munnerlyn.

Outside LB / Edge "top players available": Chandler Jones (Cardinals), Melvin Ingram (Chargers), Malcolm Smith (Raiders), Nick Perry (Packers), and Barkevious Mingo (Patriots).

Defensive End "top players available": Calais Campbell (Cardinals), Jason Pierre-Paul (Giants), Jabaal Sheard (Patriots), Andre Branch (Dolphins), and Devin Taylor (Lions).

• Note: neither Julius Peppers or Datone Jones are listed in the "top players available" for OLB or DE...but Nick Perry is listed at Outside LB / Edge.  Perry is a must resign IMO...and slots $$ wise behind Chandler Jones, Melvin Ingram, Calais Campbell, and Jason Pierre-Paul.  The Packers also need to resign Julius Peppers or Datone Jones too...ideally both...but if they sign a 2nd premier Edge guy (i.e., Ingram or JPP) I'd be fine with that too.

Inside LB "top players available":  Dont'a Hightower (Patriots), Zach Brown (Bills), Lawrence Timmons (Steelers), Perry Riley (Raiders), and Gerald Hodges (49ers).  

• I'd love any of the first three on the list but doubt those three will be available.
• I would move CM3 back inside into the rover LB spot full-time / 100% of time.

Loved watching the 2016 season recap video:
http://www.packers.com/media-center/videos/Total-Packers-2016-Season-Recap/41876287-94b9-401e-ac92-332d4b502ef8

Maybe in 2017 they'll be in the Super Bowl...hope springs eternal.

Go Pack Go!